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Why Academia Cannot Forecast Anything


COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I have been impressed by your Economic Confidence Model. You said there would be no recession until after 2024. You were really the only one who said that. Now Bloomberg reported that the forecasters who “were first out of the box to predict a US recession” are now hedging their bets. They mention Deutsche Bank Vice Chair of Research Peter Hooper and Fannie Mae chief economist Doug Duncan. However, Nomura Securities International senior economist Aichi Amemiya still says a recession is coming, but “it’s getting to be a close call.”

Not one of the significant houses seems ever to get it right. I just wanted to say your model shines a light on the whole analysis field. I can’t wait for your Geometry of Time.


REPLY:  Thank you. It has been a most interesting experience. As I said, this is something I bumped into. I did not go looking for such a model. It was something that found me, as many say it was my destiny, even growing up in a house with the address of 314 South Lippincott Ave, in Maple Shade, New Jersey.


These are the books I am trying to get out this year. The Geometry of Time will be next year. The Mark Anthony book should be on Amazon and Barnes & Noble in a couple of weeks. That is, using the coinage to demonstrate what the real story is behind Cleopatra. She was certainly not black as NETFLIX presented to rewrite history for the WOKE agenda. This is very similar to the USA using Ukraine in a proxy war to destroy Russia. Here, Cleopatra funded a war that the coinage was so massive; it still accounted for 20% of the money supply 100 years later.

The Modern Analysis is nearly finished. This goes precisely to the subject you have brought up. This is a reference book on my version of technical analysis, which is different from the mainstream, but it goes into the whole problem of analysis used by academics, which is blinding us to the reality of our actions.

The De-Dolarization demonstrates how this entire nonsense that hyperinflation is caused by just increasing the money supply, which is like saying the Great Depression took place simply because the stock market went down. Here too, the lack of any real investigative analysis has doomed the Eurozone because of the distorted view of the real cause of hyperinflation.


The Geometry of Time will be the companion to Modern Analysis for the 21st Century. This will deal with cycles from the how to the why. It has been academia’s refusal to embrace cyclical analysis and any form of technical analysis. This is why people like Larry Summers admit they cannot forecast the economy’s future.

Rayna Prime

Rayna Prime

Rayna Prime Editor